Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
43% is the estimated probability of an extraordinary Coastal El Niño in the Niño 1+2 region during the summer from December 2026 to March 2027.
58% or higher is the probability that El Niño will reach very strong magnitude in the Niño 3.4 region between September 2026 and January 2027.
62% or higher is the probability that Coastal El Niño will reach extraordinary magnitude in the Niño 1+2 region between September 2026 and January 2027.
4 Central American countries, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua, contain extensive areas of the Dry Corridor exposed to prolonged droughts and extreme rainfall associated with El Niño.
4 weeks without rainfall were enough to destroy staple crop plantings in agricultural communities in Guatemala and El Salvador, worsening food insecurity risks.
87.5 million people were affected in contexts where extreme weather events predominated as the main driver of acute food insecurity.
4 productive sectors, agriculture, livestock, aquaculture and fisheries, have differentiated preventive measures under Ecuador's Contingency Plan for the possible occurrence of El Niño.
20 Brazilian government ministries were coordinated to implement preventive and response measures against the potential impacts of El Niño on agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, and vulnerable populations.
63% is the estimated probability of a very strong El Niño between November and January, according to NOAA’s mathematical model cited by the source.
70% is the potential decline in northern anchovy catch during an El Niño year, according to the estimate cited by Sonapesca.
