Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
The price of basic foodstuffs increased by 6.1% after two months of blockade in Hormuz (INFOBAE, 2026).
83% of firms finance their investments primarily with their own resources.
The study maps 1,793 of 1,874 Peruvian districts (95.7%), with moderate-to-high risk zones covering over one-third of the national territory, indicating ENSO events amplify pesticide dispersal. (Honles,J. et al, 2026)
The excessive or inappropriate use of pesticides is strongly linked to an alarming increase in cancer cases, with 436 risk zones identified in Peru, concentrated in the Western Andes and the southern coast.(Honles,J. et al, 2026)
The LAC agricultural sector absorbs 26% of climate disaster damages on average—rising to 82% during droughts—while equatorial Pacific warming further cripples Caribbean coastal fisheries.(Castellanos, 2026)
50% of energy in Latin America comes from hydroelectric plants, which leaves the region heavily exposed to El Niño. Droughts force the activation of more expensive thermal power plants, driving up energy prices and directly impacting agricultural production costs. (Castellanos,2026)
Countries in the Andean region could see their GDP reduced by between 0.6 and 1.7 percentage points. This phenomenon would impact agriculture, hydroelectric energy, and logistics, with the LAC (Latin America and the Caribbean) agricultural sector absorbing up to 82% of the damage during drought episodes.(Castellanos, 2026)
Approximately 45 million additional people could fall into acute hunger if the war persists, with the Caribbean among the most exposed regions due to heavy food import dependence and the simultaneous threat of El Niño-driven droughts.(The Guardian, 2026)
NOAA estimates a 61% probability of El Niño developing by mid-2026. WMO warns a strong event would bring severe dry spells to Belize, Guyana, Suriname, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago, threatening crops and water supplies in Caribbean nations already facing high imported food prices due to the Iran war.
The years 2023–2025 averaged more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, with 2024 being the hottest year on record. A super El Niño on top of this baseline worsens crop yield impacts in the Caribbean, where El Niño historically generates droughts, heatwaves, and water stress that reduce production of key crops such as maize, beans, and sugarcane.
