Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
Gulf countries account for 13% of global nitrogen exports and 9% of phosphate nutrients; the Hormuz closure disrupts this critical chain for producing fertilizers such as urea and ammonia (UNCTAD, 2026).
Soybean oil prices rose up to 3.4% in Chicago, reaching 69.68 cents per pound — the highest level since late 2022 — driven by the Iran conflict and new US biofuel blending mandates that materially increase biomass-based diesel demand for 2026 (Hirtzer, Bloomberg Línea, 2026).
Fertilizer applications in some crops could decrease by up to 25% due to rising prices (Mundoagro, 2026).
Between 20% and 40% of the production cost in fruit farming corresponds to the use of fertilizers (Mundoagro, 2026).
Fertilizer prices have increased by up to 30% in some markets due to the global crisis (Mundoagro, 2026).
85% of the fertilizers used in Brazil are imported, which explains the high exposure to international shocks (Agrolatam, 2026).
The price of fertilizers increased by up to a third in one month due to the conflict (Infobae, 2026).
The cost of sending a container to the Middle East reached $7,500, after tripling due to the conflict (Infobae, 2026).
Brazil's soybean production was revised down to 179 million tonnes (from 180M) due to excessive rainfall in northern and central producing states; Brazil's competitive discount makes it unlikely China will purchase an additional 8 million tonnes of soybeans from the US (Darragh & Bhanu, Kpler, 2026).
Since February 28, 2026, only 5 fertilizer vessels have exited the Persian Gulf; the Gulf accounts for ~25% of global nitrogen fertilizer exports, generating a buildup of inventory with no clear exit, pushing global prices upward (Darragh & Bhanu, Kpler, 2026).
