Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
61% probability is estimated by WMO that El Niño will bring severe droughts to Belize, Guyana, Suriname, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago, threatening crops and water supplies in countries already facing high imported food prices due to the Iran conflict (The Guardian, 2026).
45 million additional people could fall into acute hunger if the Iran war persists, with the Caribbean among the most vulnerable regions due to food import dependence and El Niño drought threats (The Guardian, 2026).
+1.5°C anomaly in the Niño-3.4 region is NOAA's CPC threshold for a "strong" El Niño event, with a 62% probability of occurrence in June–August 2026 (Noll, 2026).
24 vessels per day transited the Panama Canal during the 2023–24 El Niño drought, down from the usual 36, with draft restrictions set at 44 feet (Noll, 2026).
ENECMWF models project Pacific temperatures exceeding the 2015 record (+5.04°F), with a 61% probability of El Niño in May–July 2026 (Noll, 2026).
The study maps 1,793 of 1,874 Peruvian districts (95.7%), with moderate-to-high risk zones covering over one-third of the national territory, indicating ENSO events amplify pesticide dispersal. (Honles,J. et al, 2026)
ENSO conditions are expected to remain neutral in Guyana, with a 55% probability of persistence through the season. (Hydrometeorigical Service of Guyana, 2026).
During the 2025-2026 agricultural season in the Peruvian highlands, the frosts of February 2026 affected between 50% and 100% of the quinoa, potato, and forage crops, with variable development, from good to fair. (National Meteorology and Hydrology Service of Peru, 2026).
It is estimated that the effects of a weak coastal El Niño in Peru could subtract 0.1 percentage points from the growth of economic activity in 2026. (Central Reserve Bank of Peru, 2026).
Weak La Niña conditions are likely with 60% probability that neutral conditions will prevail during the March–May 2026 season. (Guyana Hydrometeorological Survey, 2026).
