Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
200 millimeters of rain in a single day may occur during localized extreme events associated with El Niño in Paraguay, creating problems for production.
September onward is the period when Paraguay’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock expects El Niño could have a significant impact, coinciding with the start of the rainy season.
For the Niño 1+2 region, the Coastal Niño would extend until the summer of 2027. The event is expected to reach a magnitude between strong (48%) and moderate (46%). (Multisectoral Commission in Charge of the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon, 2026).
In the Niño 3.4 region (central equatorial Pacific), El Niño would develop from June 2026 to March 2027. For the summer of 2026-2027, the event is estimated to reach a magnitude between strong (44%) and moderate (36%). (Multisectoral Commission in Charge of the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon, 2026).
COP 67.272 billion was enabled by Colombia to subsidize the purchase of agricultural insurance through the Agricultural Insurance Incentive as a preventive measure against El Niño.
There is a 61% probability that El Niño will develop between May and July 2026 (IDB, 2026).
In recent weeks, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region has been close to +0.9 °C, indicating an El Niño phase. During El Niño, Guyana experiences below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures. (Guyana Hydrometeorological Survey, 2026).
82% probability of El Niño emergence between May and July 2026, with an upward trajectory towards a strong event. (World Food Programme, 2026).
More than 100,000 people in 250 rural communities benefited from anticipatory actions implemented in nine countries during the 2023-2024 El Niño event, with increases of up to 40% in maize and bean production in some Central American countries.
22% of global agricultural disaster losses are accounted for by the Americas, with losses estimated at USD 713 billion.
