Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
Rainfall deficits of 60 to 200 mm are forecast across parts of Guatemala during October 2026.
INSIVUMEH forecasts a 100% probability of El Niño conditions from September-November 2026 through February-April 2027.
197 municipalities were classified as experiencing severe drought in September 2026, up from 153 in August; municipalities under extreme drought increased from 4 to 24.
66.42% of the area of the United States and Puerto Rico was abnormally dry or in some category of drought (D0-D4), based on data valid as of September 29, 2026.
Strengthening El Niño conditions increase the risk of poor maize yields in Zimbabwe and South Africa during the 2026/27 season. During previous El Niño events, regional maize and sorghum production was around 10% to 15% below normal, and deficits exceeding 40% are considered possible.
The 2026 Primera maize and bean season ended under poor conditions in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua due to prolonged dry spells and high temperatures. GEOGLAM reports that many subsistence farmers experienced losses above 75%, while some crops died at early stages because of erratic rainfall.
October-December 2026 forecasts indicate more than a 70% probability of below-normal rainfall in Honduras, Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, eastern El Salvador and other parts of southern Central America. The outlook coincides with establishment and development of Segunda/Postrera crops and very strong El Niño conditions.
49.78% of the area of the United States and Puerto Rico was in moderate drought or a more intense drought category (D1-D4), based on data valid as of September 29, 2026.
From September 24 to October 8, 2026, average maximum temperatures above the 80th percentile and 30°C were forecast across 13 agricultural areas in the Americas, Africa and Asia.
1.33% of the area of the United States and Puerto Rico was in exceptional drought (D4), the highest-intensity category of the U.S. Drought Monitor, based on data valid as of September 29, 2026.
