Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
+1.5°C anomaly in the Niño-3.4 region is NOAA's CPC threshold for a "strong" El Niño event, with a 62% probability of occurrence in June–August 2026 (Noll, 2026).
24 vessels per day transited the Panama Canal during the 2023–24 El Niño drought, down from the usual 36, with draft restrictions set at 44 feet (Noll, 2026).
ENECMWF models project Pacific temperatures exceeding the 2015 record (+5.04°F), with a 61% probability of El Niño in May–July 2026 (Noll, 2026).
ENSO conditions are expected to remain neutral in Guyana, with a 55% probability of persistence through the season. (Hydrometeorigical Service of Guyana, 2026).
The study maps 1,793 of 1,874 Peruvian districts (95.7%), with moderate-to-high risk zones covering over one-third of the national territory, indicating ENSO events amplify pesticide dispersal. (Honles,J. et al, 2026)
During the 2025-2026 agricultural season in the Peruvian highlands, the frosts of February 2026 affected between 50% and 100% of the quinoa, potato, and forage crops, with variable development, from good to fair. (National Meteorology and Hydrology Service of Peru, 2026).
It is estimated that the effects of a weak coastal El Niño in Peru could subtract 0.1 percentage points from the growth of economic activity in 2026. (Central Reserve Bank of Peru, 2026).
Weak La Niña conditions are likely with 60% probability that neutral conditions will prevail during the March–May 2026 season. (Guyana Hydrometeorological Survey, 2026).
1.5°C was the temperature increase limit reaffirmed at COP27 (CAF, 2023).
20.29 °C was the global average temperature recorded in 2024, with an anomaly of +1.18 °C (SENAMHI, 2024). This thermal increase is reflected in Peru through a higher frequency and intensity of droughts, floods, heat waves, cold spells, and landslides, affecting ecosystems, infrastructure, and productive sectors.
