Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
In recent weeks, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region has been close to +0.9 °C, indicating an El Niño phase. During El Niño, Guyana experiences below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures. (Guyana Hydrometeorological Survey, 2026).
82% probability of El Niño emergence between May and July 2026, with an upward trajectory towards a strong event. (World Food Programme, 2026).
22% of global agricultural disaster losses are accounted for by the Americas, with losses estimated at USD 713 billion.
More than 100,000 people in 250 rural communities benefited from anticipatory actions implemented in nine countries during the 2023-2024 El Niño event, with increases of up to 40% in maize and bean production in some Central American countries.
More than 20% is NOAA’s estimated probability of an extreme version of El Niño occurring, although experts warn that uncertainty remains.
1997 was the last time Argentina observed an extreme version of El Niño, associated with intense rainfall, floods, and damage in urban and agricultural areas.
60% is the approximate probability assigned by Enfen to a weak El Niño event in Peru during 2026.
In recent weeks, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region was close to +0.5 °C, that is, at the limit of the El Niño phase. (Guyana Hydrometeorological Survey, 2026).
Climate models indicate the 2026 El Niño could be the strongest on record. It is estimated 50% chance of a "strong" or "very strong" event during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter. Some models project global temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C (Alessi,2026)
The years 2023–2025 averaged more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, with 2024 being the hottest year on record. A super El Niño on top of this baseline worsens crop yield impacts in the Caribbean, where El Niño historically generates droughts, heatwaves, and water stress that reduce production of key crops such as maize, beans, and sugarcane.
