Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
63% is the estimated probability of a very strong El Niño between November and January, according to NOAA’s mathematical model cited by the source.
70% is the potential decline in northern anchovy catch during an El Niño year, according to the estimate cited by Sonapesca.
25% of cherry production was lost during the 2023-24 El Niño, especially in early varieties, according to the source.
September onward is the period when Paraguay’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock expects El Niño could have a significant impact, coinciding with the start of the rainy season.
200 millimeters of rain in a single day may occur during localized extreme events associated with El Niño in Paraguay, creating problems for production.
Region 3-4 of the Pacific Ocean is where Paraguay’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock states El Niño has already settled, with direct impact expected on Paraguay.
For the Niño 1+2 region, the Coastal Niño would extend until the summer of 2027. The event is expected to reach a magnitude between strong (48%) and moderate (46%). (Multisectoral Commission in Charge of the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon, 2026).
In the Niño 3.4 region (central equatorial Pacific), El Niño would develop from June 2026 to March 2027. For the summer of 2026-2027, the event is estimated to reach a magnitude between strong (44%) and moderate (36%). (Multisectoral Commission in Charge of the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon, 2026).
COP 67.272 billion was enabled by Colombia to subsidize the purchase of agricultural insurance through the Agricultural Insurance Incentive as a preventive measure against El Niño.
There is a 61% probability that El Niño will develop between May and July 2026 (IDB, 2026).
