Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
By the end of November 2026, severe long-term drought was considered imminent in Saint Lucia and evolving in the ABC Islands, Antigua, northern and northwestern Bahamas, and Tobago.
As of September 1, 2026, 49.51% of the United States and Puerto Rico was in drought (59.05% across the Lower 48 states), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Drought conditions worsened that week across the south-central United States and along the North Dakota-South Dakota-Minnesota border area.
62% or higher is the probability that Coastal El Niño will reach extraordinary magnitude in the Niño 1+2 region between September 2026 and January 2027.
58% or higher is the probability that El Niño will reach very strong magnitude in the Niño 3.4 region between September 2026 and January 2027.
43% is the estimated probability of an extraordinary Coastal El Niño in the Niño 1+2 region during the summer from December 2026 to March 2027.
In July 2026, the Niño3.4 index exceeded a +2°C sea-surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific, a threshold that Météo-France classifies as strong El Niño intensity.
Among the most intense episodes observed since 1950 could be the 2026 El Niño: six-month seasonal forecasts indicate that the Niño3.4 index will continue rising and peak in late 2026, potentially reaching very strong intensity.
4 low-intensity, short-lived tropical systems had been observed in the 2026 Atlantic season by August 28; only Tropical Storm Dolly occurred in the main development region. Météo-France links this historically low activity to the strong El Niño and high wind shear.
From August 31 to September 27, 2026, Météo-France forecasts rainfall totals clearly below normal across the Leeward Islands of the Lesser Antilles. From September 7 to 27, the rainfall deficit is expected to range from slight to moderate.
Between +0.5°C and +1.5°C above normal are the temperatures forecast from August 31 to September 27, 2026, in Guadeloupe, Saint-Martin, and Saint-Barthélemy.
