Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
>70% is the probability of much below-normal precipitation across the northeastern Caribbean from September through November 2026, according to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble.
Between April 1 and August 20, 2026, the Pacific coastal areas of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua received only 30-60% of their average seasonal rainfall, ranking among the driest such periods since the CHIRPS record began in 1981.
Prolonged drought during the 2026 Primera season destroyed 8,772 hectares of maize and 3,080 hectares of red beans in the Honduran departments of Lempira, Ocotepeque, Intibuca, and Comayagua (Dry Corridor). The Government of Honduras declared a state of drought on August 19, 2026, and issued a red alert over the agricultural losses.
Wheat in Chile was rated 'Poor' (yields 5-25% below the 5-year average) due to heavy rainfall and waterlogged soils, according to the August 2026 report.
Before the end of 2026, El Niño is forecast to reach very strong intensity and peak toward the close of the year. WMO forecasts do not anticipate ENSO-neutral conditions or a return to La Niña during the outlook period.
Nearly 100% is the probability that El Niño will persist during September-November 2026 and December 2026-February 2027, according to seasonal forecasts from WMO Global Producing Centres for Long-Range Forecasts.
Unusually low rainfall totals were forecast during the peak of the Caribbean Wet Season, with the highest chances of deficits in Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, the Lesser Antilles, and the ABC Islands.
By the end of November 2026, severe long-term drought was considered imminent in Saint Lucia and evolving in the ABC Islands, Antigua, northern and northwestern Bahamas, and Tobago.
67% was the precipitation deficit recorded in French Guiana during August 2026, following deficits of 49% in July and 17% in June.
Between 3 and 8 named storms were forecast for the Caribbean from September to November 2026; 2 to 5 could develop into hurricanes and 1 or 2 into major hurricanes.
