Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
Enhanced convection and rainfall persisted from the central to the eastern Pacific, while they remained suppressed over Indonesia. Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies also extended from the western to the east-central equatorial Pacific.
Widespread subsurface temperature anomalies in excess of +10.0°C were recorded at depth in the equatorial Pacific. In August 2026 the equatorial subsurface temperature index (average 180°-100°W) remained steady, reflecting a deeper-than-average thermocline.
More than 90% is the probability that El Niño will reach very strong intensity during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-2027, a period corresponding to spring and summer in Chile.
INTA's NDVI monitoring (August 2026) recorded a significant increase in rangeland areas with below-average productivity, relative to the 2011-2026 historical baseline, across central Neuquen, north-central Rio Negro, south-central and southwestern Chubut, and the entire central area of Santa Cruz; the index remained low in Comarca Andina and in Chubut's Gaiman and F. Ameghino departments.
+1.8 °C was reached by the Niño 3.4 index in August 2026, while Niño 3 reached +2.5 °C and Niño 1+2 reached +3.4 °C. Subsurface temperature anomalies also exceeded +10 °C at depth.
For September 2026, INTA forecasts above-normal precipitation continuing across most of Patagonia, with the exception of southern Santa Cruz and Tierra del Fuego (where normal-to-below-normal levels are expected), along with a higher probability of below-normal temperatures across most of the region.
Sea surface temperature anomalies exceeded +3.0°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific. In August 2026 the Niño-3.4 index reached +1.8°C, Niño-3 +2.5°C and Niño-1+2 +3.4°C, while Niño-4 decreased to +0.1°C.
312,700 tonnes of sugarcane were harvested in Guadeloupe in 2026, approximately 35% less than in 2025.
13 eastern Caribbean territories experienced some degree of dryness during July 2026: Tobago, Barbados, St Thomas, St Vincent, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Dominica, St Maarten, Guadeloupe, St Kitts, Antigua, St Croix and Anguilla.
Primera-season maize in Honduras and Nicaragua was rated 'Poor' (yields 5-25% below the 5-year average) due to prolonged dry spells and high temperatures. Guatemala and El Salvador are also showing concern over the same climate driver.
