Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
The share of the United States and Puerto Rico in drought grew by 12.2 percentage points over the past month, reaching 49.77% as of September 15, 2026 (59.37% across the Lower 48 states); the affected population grew 11.2% over the same period, to 103.5 million people, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Between 30 and 155 mm of rain could accumulate in Costa Rica's Northern Zone from September 14 to 20, 2026, the highest forecast range among the country's regions. The probability of an extreme event is low, at about 25%, and forecast uncertainty is also low.
During the four weeks from September 14 to October 11, 2026, the IMN forecasts below-normal rainfall in Costa Rica's Pacific region, Central Valley, and Western Northern Zone. The pattern is expected to be associated with El Niño and stronger-than-usual trade winds.
55% is the probability that El Niño will reach very strong magnitude during December 2026-March 2027, while the probability of strong magnitude is 40% and moderate magnitude is 5%.
48% is the probability that Coastal El Niño will reach extraordinary magnitude during December 2026-March 2027 in Peru, while the probability of strong magnitude is 45% and moderate magnitude is 7%.
Coastal El Niño is expected to continue until mid-autumn 2027, with the highest probability of reaching extraordinary magnitude between September 2026 and January 2027; between February and March it would remain between strong and extraordinary.
Argentina's first-crop (early-planted) soybean recorded above-average yields in 91% of the farming seasons analyzed under El Nino influence, according to the AgroENSO tool developed by INTA and GEA-CONICET, presented as part of the 2026/27 season outlook.
Argentina's national maize yield exceeded the historical average in 10 of the 12 farming seasons analyzed under El Nino influence, according to the AgroENSO tool developed by INTA and GEA-CONICET, presented as part of the 2026/27 season outlook.
Usable water reserves across much of Argentina's Pampas region stand at 80-100%, per estimates from the SEPA-INTA system for the 2026/27 farming season - a scenario INTA links to the warm phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon forecast for the October-December 2026 quarter.
More than 90% is the probability that El Niño will reach very strong intensity during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-2027, a period corresponding to spring and summer in Chile.
