Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
-2.2, -3.0 and -4.4 percentage points are the estimated reductions in Ecuador's economic growth in 2024 under moderate, strong and extreme El Niño scenarios, respectively; the recent effect on inflation is not statistically significant.
-1.3, -2.7 and -4.1 percentage points are the estimated reductions in Peru's economic growth in 2024 under moderate, strong and extreme El Niño scenarios; inflation increases by approximately 1, 2 and 3 percentage points, respectively.
16% of total household expenditure in Latin America and the Caribbean is spent on food (OECD and FAO, 2023).
Nearly -1% of GDP is the estimated cumulative loss by the sixth quarter following a strong El Niño episode for the analyzed group comprising Central America, Panama, the Dominican Republic, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru; the effect reverses before two years and small increases are observed in headline and food consumer prices.
+7.30 percentage points is the approximate cumulative response of food inflation in Colombia between months 5 and 9 after the shock associated with El Niño.
0.4 percentage points is the estimated widening of Costa Rica's negative output gap relative to potential GDP associated with El Niño; year-on-year inflation increases by about 8.1 percentage points.
45% negative correlation exists between local soybean prices and distance to ports in Mato Grosso, indicating that prices decrease with increasing distance (Garrett et al., 2018).
-0.19 percentage points is the estimated initial effect of El Niño on Chile's economic growth, followed by a reversal of +0.70 percentage points in the fourth quarter by the end of the first year. Inflation increases by 0.14 percentage points initially and by a cumulative 0.39 percentage points in the fourth quarter.
-0.76 percentage points is the estimated reduction in Colombia's economic growth associated with El Niño; inflation increases by approximately 1.2 percentage points.
-1.6 percentage points is the estimated reduction in Ecuador's economic growth associated with El Niño; historically, inflation increases by approximately 5 percentage points.
