Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
Nearly 30% was the year-on-year increase in grain harvests during intense El Niño events, such as 1997 and 2014-2016, due to productivity gains.
1997 was the last time Argentina observed an extreme version of El Niño, associated with intense rainfall, floods, and damage in urban and agricultural areas.
More than 20% is NOAA’s estimated probability of an extreme version of El Niño occurring, although experts warn that uncertainty remains.
60% is the approximate probability assigned by Enfen to a weak El Niño event in Peru during 2026.
Climate models indicate the 2026 El Niño could be the strongest on record. It is estimated 50% chance of a "strong" or "very strong" event during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter. Some models project global temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C (Alessi,2026)
The years 2023–2025 averaged more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, with 2024 being the hottest year on record. A super El Niño on top of this baseline worsens crop yield impacts in the Caribbean, where El Niño historically generates droughts, heatwaves, and water stress that reduce production of key crops such as maize, beans, and sugarcane.
0.6 to 1.7 percentage points of GDP could be lost by Andean countries due to El Niño, impacting agriculture, hydroelectric energy, and logistics, with the agricultural sector absorbing up to 82% of drought damages (Castellanos, 2026).
50% of Latin America's energy comes from hydroelectric sources, making the region highly exposed to El Niño; droughts force reliance on costlier thermal plants, raising agricultural production costs (Castellanos, 2026).
26% of climate disaster damages in LAC are absorbed by the agricultural sector on average, rising to 82% during droughts; equatorial Pacific warming also severely impacts Caribbean coastal fisheries (Castellanos, 2026).
45% of Caribbean SDG targets are stagnant or regressing, making it the lowest-performing subregion (13%) versus 19% in South America and 18% in Central America (CEPAL, 2026).
