Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
1.5 billion lempiras were allocated by Honduras to the 2026 Agricultural, Livestock and Coffee Production Incentives Program to strengthen food security and respond to climate emergencies.
More than 100,000 people in 250 rural communities benefited from anticipatory actions implemented in nine countries during the 2023-2024 El Niño event, with increases of up to 40% in maize and bean production in some Central American countries.
22% of global agricultural disaster losses are accounted for by the Americas, with losses estimated at USD 713 billion.
More than 20% is NOAA’s estimated probability of an extreme version of El Niño occurring, although experts warn that uncertainty remains.
1997 was the last time Argentina observed an extreme version of El Niño, associated with intense rainfall, floods, and damage in urban and agricultural areas.
Nearly 30% was the year-on-year increase in grain harvests during intense El Niño events, such as 1997 and 2014-2016, due to productivity gains.
60% is the approximate probability assigned by Enfen to a weak El Niño event in Peru during 2026.
Climate models indicate the 2026 El Niño could be the strongest on record. It is estimated 50% chance of a "strong" or "very strong" event during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter. Some models project global temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C (Alessi,2026)
The years 2023–2025 averaged more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, with 2024 being the hottest year on record. A super El Niño on top of this baseline worsens crop yield impacts in the Caribbean, where El Niño historically generates droughts, heatwaves, and water stress that reduce production of key crops such as maize, beans, and sugarcane.
50% of Latin America's energy comes from hydroelectric sources, making the region highly exposed to El Niño; droughts force reliance on costlier thermal plants, raising agricultural production costs (Castellanos, 2026).
