Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
33% of global maritime fertilizer trade (16 Mt) passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and in some countries, up to 54% of imports come from the Persian Gulf. During the last energy crisis, the natural gas index exceeded 1,000, while nitrogen fertilizers exceeded 700 (urea) and 900 (DAP).
The price of Brent crude rose by 27%, reaching approximately $91.80 per barrel, while the price of European natural gas (TTF) rose by 74%, reaching nearly €55.80 per MWh.
Freight rates for oil tankers rose (BDTI +54% and BCTI +72%), while marine fuel prices increased by up to +99% for low-sulfur fuel and +100% for high-sulfur fuel, driving up transportation costs in global supply chains.
Rising borrowing costs are increasing the potential economic burden of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Following the military escalation, sovereign bond yields rose by between 0.24 and 0.64 percentage points, reaching as high as 7.1%.
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell more than 95% (from over 100 vessels per day to fewer than 10), disrupting flows of oil, LNG and fertilizers essential for global agricultural production (UNCTAD, 2026).
A 20%–30% increase in prices could be generated by the certification of producers supported by CAF (CAF, 2025).
9.5% is the projected annual decline in the price index for agricultural and livestock products (ECLAC, 2024).
2.1% was the year-on-year fall in the price index of the main commodities exported by LAC (ECLAC, 2024).
20% to 60% would increase meat prices if they reflected their true health, climate and environmental costs (Sutton, Lotsch & Prasann, 2024).
15 % emissions could be reduced by reducing fertilizer use or adopting organic agriculture, but this could also reduce agricultural production by 5 %, increase food prices by 13 % and make healthy diets more expensive by 10 % (Sutton, Lotsch & Prasann, 2024).
