Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
2.4% rise in FAO's Food Price Index in March 2026 reached its highest since September of the prior year, with crude oil near USD 120 per barrel due to the Iran conflict (Ibáñez, 2026).
Uruguay will exceed 350,000 hectares of brassicas in 2026 — compared to 348,000 in 2022 — driven by lower nitrogen fertilizer dependency versus wheat and canola prices consolidated above USD 500/mt. (El Observador, 2026).
45 million people could be pushed into acute hunger if the Iran conflict persists, as the poorest households spend between 50% and 70% of their income on food
Urea prices have risen by up to 50% internationally due to the conflict in the Middle East (La Nación, 2026).
Soybean oil prices rose up to 3.4% in Chicago, reaching 69.68 cents per pound — the highest level since late 2022 — driven by the Iran conflict and new US biofuel blending mandates that materially increase biomass-based diesel demand for 2026 (Hirtzer, Bloomberg Línea, 2026).
Gulf countries account for 13% of global nitrogen exports and 9% of phosphate nutrients; the Hormuz closure disrupts this critical chain for producing fertilizers such as urea and ammonia (UNCTAD, 2026).
Brazil's soybean production was revised down to 179 million tonnes (from 180M) due to excessive rainfall in northern and central producing states; Brazil's competitive discount makes it unlikely China will purchase an additional 8 million tonnes of soybeans from the US (Darragh & Bhanu, Kpler, 2026).
Since February 28, 2026, only 5 fertilizer vessels have exited the Persian Gulf; the Gulf accounts for ~25% of global nitrogen fertilizer exports, generating a buildup of inventory with no clear exit, pushing global prices upward (Darragh & Bhanu, Kpler, 2026).
Fertilizer-related outbound shipments through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to their lowest level since January 2026 following Iran's announcement of the strait's closure on 2 March 2026.
The IMF warns that energy-importing Caribbean countries face balance of payments pressures due to rising oil and food prices; oil surpassed USD 100/barrel (+50% in one month), with additional risks for tourism- and remittance-dependent economies.
