Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
45 million people could be pushed into acute hunger if the Iran conflict persists, as the poorest households spend between 50% and 70% of their income on food
Urea prices have risen by up to 50% internationally due to the conflict in the Middle East (La Nación, 2026).
Fertilizer-related outbound shipments through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to their lowest level since January 2026 following Iran's announcement of the strait's closure on 2 March 2026.
Rising borrowing costs are increasing the potential economic burden of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Following the military escalation, sovereign bond yields rose by between 0.24 and 0.64 percentage points, reaching as high as 7.1%.
33% of global maritime fertilizer trade (16 Mt) passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and in some countries, up to 54% of imports come from the Persian Gulf. During the last energy crisis, the natural gas index exceeded 1,000, while nitrogen fertilizers exceeded 700 (urea) and 900 (DAP).
Freight rates for oil tankers rose (BDTI +54% and BCTI +72%), while marine fuel prices increased by up to +99% for low-sulfur fuel and +100% for high-sulfur fuel, driving up transportation costs in global supply chains.
The price of Brent crude rose by 27%, reaching approximately $91.80 per barrel, while the price of European natural gas (TTF) rose by 74%, reaching nearly €55.80 per MWh.
A 20%–30% increase in prices could be generated by the certification of producers supported by CAF (CAF, 2025).
This study examined the relationship between air and sea surface temperatures, Peruvian organic agro-exports (2000–2022), and food security. It found that higher organic agro-exports reduce undernourishment globally and enhance access to healthy diets despite climate change (Coayla & Bedon, 2024).
In 1999, the United States granted US$132 per hectare as a corn subsidy, three times more than the US$42 per hectare granted by Mexico (Arroyo, 2009).
