Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
FAO's Maximo Torero warns that high fertilizer costs and prolonged conflict may force farmers to cut inputs and plantings. A 20% reduction in fertilizers could slash yields by 25%, as costs now consume half of smallholder budgets.
Vegetable oil prices increased 5.1% in March, marking a third consecutive monthly rise, while sugar prices jumped 7.2% to their highest level since October 2025. Both increases are linked to rising energy costs driven by the Iran war and disruptions to Gulf trade infrastructure.(Ground News, 2026)
FAO's Food Price Index rose 2.4% in March 2026, reaching its highest level since September of the previous year. The increase reflects the impact of higher energy costs linked to the Iran war, which disrupted the Strait of Hormuz and pushed crude benchmarks close to USD 120 per barrel.
Uruguay will exceed 350,000 hectares of brassicas in 2026 — compared to 348,000 in 2022 — driven by lower nitrogen fertilizer dependency versus wheat and canola prices consolidated above USD 500/mt. (El Observador, 2026).
Soybean oil prices rose up to 3.4% in Chicago, reaching 69.68 cents per pound — the highest level since late 2022 — driven by the Iran conflict and new US biofuel blending mandates that materially increase biomass-based diesel demand for 2026 (Hirtzer, Bloomberg Línea, 2026).
Brazil's soybean production was revised down to 179 million tonnes (from 180M) due to excessive rainfall in northern and central producing states; Brazil's competitive discount makes it unlikely China will purchase an additional 8 million tonnes of soybeans from the US (Darragh & Bhanu, Kpler, 2026).
Since February 28, 2026, only 5 fertilizer vessels have exited the Persian Gulf; the Gulf accounts for ~25% of global nitrogen fertilizer exports, generating a buildup of inventory with no clear exit, pushing global prices upward (Darragh & Bhanu, Kpler, 2026).
Gulf countries account for 13% of global nitrogen exports and 9% of phosphate nutrients; the Hormuz closure disrupts this critical chain for producing fertilizers such as urea and ammonia (UNCTAD, 2026).
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell more than 95% (from over 100 vessels per day to fewer than 10), disrupting flows of oil, LNG and fertilizers essential for global agricultural production (UNCTAD, 2026).
The IMF warns that energy-importing Caribbean countries face balance of payments pressures due to rising oil and food prices; oil surpassed USD 100/barrel (+50% in one month), with additional risks for tourism- and remittance-dependent economies.
