Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
Climate models indicate the 2026 El Niño could be the strongest on record. It is estimated 50% chance of a "strong" or "very strong" event during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter. Some models project global temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C (Alessi,2026)
Over 100 million people in LAC face water scarcity despite the region holding 34% of the planet's renewable freshwater (FAO, 2026).
ENECMWF models project Pacific temperatures exceeding the 2015 record (+5.04°F), with a 61% probability of El Niño in May–July 2026 (Noll, 2026).
During the 2023–24 El Niño drought, daily Panama Canal transits fell to 24 vessels (versus the usual 36), with draft restrictions set at 44 feet. NOAA warns the 2026–27 El Niño could again lower Gatún Lake levels and replicate these disruptions, directly impacting regional agrifood trade.
+1.5°C anomaly in the Niño-3.4 region is NOAA's CPC threshold for a "strong" El Niño event, with a 62% probability of occurrence in June–August 2026 (Noll, 2026).
the Caribbean has the lowest share of targets on track for fulfillment (13%), compared to 19% in South America and 18% in Central America and Mexico. Some 45% of Caribbean targets show stagnation or regression — the highest share among the three subregions — reflecting structural vulnerability compounded by global geopolitical fragmentation.
the region is on track to meet only 19% of the 2030 Agenda targets at the current pace — down from 23% estimated the previous year. Some 42% of targets are advancing in the right direction but too slowly, while 39% are stagnant or regressing compared to 2015.
FAO's Maximo Torero warns that high fertilizer costs and prolonged conflict may force farmers to cut inputs and plantings. A 20% reduction in fertilizers could slash yields by 25%, as costs now consume half of smallholder budgets.
Vegetable oil prices increased 5.1% in March, marking a third consecutive monthly rise, while sugar prices jumped 7.2% to their highest level since October 2025. Both increases are linked to rising energy costs driven by the Iran war and disruptions to Gulf trade infrastructure.(Ground News, 2026)
FAO's Food Price Index rose 2.4% in March 2026, reaching its highest level since September of the previous year. The increase reflects the impact of higher energy costs linked to the Iran war, which disrupted the Strait of Hormuz and pushed crude benchmarks close to USD 120 per barrel.
