Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
3 strategic crops, maize, sugar and wheat, face production risks associated with El Niño: lower maize and sugar production in Brazil and impacts on part of Argentina's wheat harvest.
2 components of inflation, food and energy, could increase in response to an intense El Niño event in Latin America during 2026.
4 Latin American countries, Colombia, Peru, Brazil and Argentina, have the greatest exposure to an intense El Niño event in 2026, according to a Bank of America report.
2 percentage points is the reduction in export duties applied to wheat and barley in Argentina, lowering the rate from 7.5% to 5.5% beginning in June 2026.
Nearly 30% was the year-on-year increase in grain harvests during intense El Niño events, such as 1997 and 2014-2016, due to productivity gains.
1997 was the last time Argentina observed an extreme version of El Niño, associated with intense rainfall, floods, and damage in urban and agricultural areas.
More than 20% is NOAA’s estimated probability of an extreme version of El Niño occurring, although experts warn that uncertainty remains.
Urea prices have risen by up to 50% internationally due to the conflict in the Middle East (La Nación, 2026).
Argentina currently has 30–60 days of fertilizer coverage, allowing the wheat campaign to begin without immediate problems (La Nación, 2026).
60% of the urea used in Argentina is supplied by domestic production (Profertil), partially reducing external dependence (La Nación, 2026).
