Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
The study maps 1,793 of 1,874 Peruvian districts (95.7%), with moderate-to-high risk zones covering over one-third of the national territory, indicating ENSO events amplify pesticide dispersal. (Honles,J. et al, 2026)
The LAC agricultural sector absorbs 26% of climate disaster damages on average—rising to 82% during droughts—while equatorial Pacific warming further cripples Caribbean coastal fisheries.(Castellanos, 2026)
50% of energy in Latin America comes from hydroelectric plants, which leaves the region heavily exposed to El Niño. Droughts force the activation of more expensive thermal power plants, driving up energy prices and directly impacting agricultural production costs. (Castellanos,2026)
NOAA estimates a 61% probability of El Niño developing by mid-2026. WMO warns a strong event would bring severe dry spells to Belize, Guyana, Suriname, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago, threatening crops and water supplies in Caribbean nations already facing high imported food prices due to the Iran war.
The years 2023–2025 averaged more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, with 2024 being the hottest year on record. A super El Niño on top of this baseline worsens crop yield impacts in the Caribbean, where El Niño historically generates droughts, heatwaves, and water stress that reduce production of key crops such as maize, beans, and sugarcane.
Climate models indicate the 2026 El Niño could be the strongest on record. It is estimated 50% chance of a "strong" or "very strong" event during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter. Some models project global temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C (Alessi,2026)
ENECMWF models project Pacific temperatures exceeding the 2015 record (+5.04°F), with a 61% probability of El Niño in May–July 2026 (Noll, 2026).
+1.5°C anomaly in the Niño-3.4 region is NOAA's CPC threshold for a "strong" El Niño event, with a 62% probability of occurrence in June–August 2026 (Noll, 2026).
Uruguay will exceed 350,000 hectares of brassicas in 2026 — compared to 348,000 in 2022 — driven by lower nitrogen fertilizer dependency versus wheat and canola prices consolidated above USD 500/mt. (El Observador, 2026).
The global spending gap in energy transition is 286 billion USD annually (OECD, 2024).
