Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
4 Latin American countries, Colombia, Peru, Brazil and Argentina, have the greatest exposure to an intense El Niño event in 2026, according to a Bank of America report.
2 percentage points is the reduction in export duties applied to wheat and barley in Argentina, lowering the rate from 7.5% to 5.5% beginning in June 2026.
Nearly 30% was the year-on-year increase in grain harvests during intense El Niño events, such as 1997 and 2014-2016, due to productivity gains.
1997 was the last time Argentina observed an extreme version of El Niño, associated with intense rainfall, floods, and damage in urban and agricultural areas.
More than 20% is NOAA’s estimated probability of an extreme version of El Niño occurring, although experts warn that uncertainty remains.
Argentina currently has 30–60 days of fertilizer coverage, allowing the wheat campaign to begin without immediate problems (La Nación, 2026).
Urea prices have risen by up to 50% internationally due to the conflict in the Middle East (La Nación, 2026).
60% of the urea used in Argentina is supplied by domestic production (Profertil), partially reducing external dependence (La Nación, 2026).
The approximate volume of the urea market in Argentina is 2,200,000 tons, with a significant part dependent on imports (La Nación, 2026).
In the sectoral mapping of PAIs, agriculture, forestry, hunting and fishing accounts for 248 PAIs (34.8%), followed by manufacturing (188), tourism (70) and ICT (51); additionally, 32 PAIs in health are identified, according to the report (ECLAC, 2025).
