Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
October-December 2026 forecasts indicate more than a 70% probability of below-normal rainfall in Honduras, Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, eastern El Salvador and other parts of southern Central America. The outlook coincides with establishment and development of Segunda/Postrera crops and very strong El Niño conditions.
The 2026 Primera maize and bean season ended under poor conditions in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua due to prolonged dry spells and high temperatures. GEOGLAM reports that many subsistence farmers experienced losses above 75%, while some crops died at early stages because of erratic rainfall.
10 countries were identified by GDACS as affected by the Central America-2026 drought episode: The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua and El Salvador.
840,372 km² were experiencing medium agricultural drought impact in the GDACS Central America-2026 episode as of September 29, 2026.
3 countries showed a high level of agricultural drought impact in the territorial units reported by GDACS: El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua.
2.5% was the cumulative decline in Nicaragua's agricultural activity during the first half of 2026, amid a rainfall deficit associated with the El Niño phenomenon that affected subsistence and agro-industrial crops.
Between April 1 and August 20, 2026, the Pacific coastal areas of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua received only 30-60% of their average seasonal rainfall, ranking among the driest such periods since the CHIRPS record began in 1981.
Primera-season maize in Honduras and Nicaragua was rated 'Poor' (yields 5-25% below the 5-year average) due to prolonged dry spells and high temperatures. Guatemala and El Salvador are also showing concern over the same climate driver.
3 agricultural products, coffee, beef and peanuts, would retain preferential treatment under the new tariff imposed by the United States on Nicaraguan exports.
A 12.5% tariff will be imposed by the United States on part of Nicaragua's exports, increasing pressure on competitiveness and access to the country's main market.
