Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
The price of basic foodstuffs increased by 6.1% after two months of blockade in Hormuz (INFOBAE, 2026).
The years 2023–2025 averaged more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, with 2024 being the hottest year on record. A super El Niño on top of this baseline worsens crop yield impacts in the Caribbean, where El Niño historically generates droughts, heatwaves, and water stress that reduce production of key crops such as maize, beans, and sugarcane.
Climate models indicate the 2026 El Niño could be the strongest on record. It is estimated 50% chance of a "strong" or "very strong" event during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter. Some models project global temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C (Alessi,2026)
The World Bank Group’s fertilizer index is projected to increase by 31% (y/y) in 2026. (Banco Mundial, 2026).
Natural gas prices, the main input for fertilizers, increased by up to 50%, driving up the cost of the sector (Agrolatam, 2026).
25% crop yield decline is projected from a 20% fertilizer cut if the conflict exceeds 40 days, affecting 50% of producer budgets (Ibáñez, 2026).
5.1% rise in vegetable oil prices and 7.2% in sugar — its highest since October 2025 — were recorded in March 2026, both linked to energy cost increases from the Iran war (Ibáñez, 2026).
2.4% rise in FAO's Food Price Index in March 2026 reached its highest since September of the prior year, with crude oil near USD 120 per barrel due to the Iran conflict (Ibáñez, 2026).
74.67% was the increase in the price of urea, rising from 415.4 to 725.6 dollars per ton between the start of 2026 and March 31.
Fertilizer applications in some crops could decrease by up to 25% due to rising prices (Mundoagro, 2026).
