Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
51% was the increase in freight costs versus 18% for grains and oilseeds FOB prices between January 2025 and September 2026; the IGC highlights this as a rising freight share in delivered prices.
533.85 million metric tons is the projected world milled rice output for 2026/27 in September 2026.
2,944.15 million metric tons is the projected total world grain output for 2026/27 in September 2026.
822.43 million metric tons is the projected world wheat output for 2026/27 in September 2026.
Sea surface temperature anomalies exceeded +3.0°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific. In August 2026 the Niño-3.4 index reached +1.8°C, Niño-3 +2.5°C and Niño-1+2 +3.4°C, while Niño-4 decreased to +0.1°C.
Widespread subsurface temperature anomalies in excess of +10.0°C were recorded at depth in the equatorial Pacific. In August 2026 the equatorial subsurface temperature index (average 180°-100°W) remained steady, reflecting a deeper-than-average thermocline.
Enhanced convection and rainfall persisted from the central to the eastern Pacific, while they remained suppressed over Indonesia. Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies also extended from the western to the east-central equatorial Pacific.
Nearly 100% is the probability that El Niño will persist during September-November 2026 and December 2026-February 2027, according to seasonal forecasts from WMO Global Producing Centres for Long-Range Forecasts.
Before the end of 2026, El Niño is forecast to reach very strong intensity and peak toward the close of the year. WMO forecasts do not anticipate ENSO-neutral conditions or a return to La Niña during the outlook period.
Among the most intense episodes observed since 1950 could be the 2026 El Niño: six-month seasonal forecasts indicate that the Niño3.4 index will continue rising and peak in late 2026, potentially reaching very strong intensity.
