Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
Fertilizer-related outbound shipments through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to their lowest level since January 2026 following Iran's announcement of the strait's closure on 2 March 2026.
The global demand for nutrients will reach 205 Mt in the fertilizer year 2025/26 (Earth Platform, 2026).
$85.7 billion was the value of the world fertilizer trade in 2024 (Plataforma Tierra, 2026).
The value of the global fertilizer trade fell by 8.9% in 2024 compared to 2023 (Plataforma Tierra, 2026).
75% of the value of the world trade in fertilizers corresponds to nitrogenous fertilizers (Plataforma Tierra, 2026).
15–20% higher global fertilizer prices are projected during the first half of 2026 due to energy and trade tensions linked to the conflict in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
The price of Brent crude rose by 27%, reaching approximately $91.80 per barrel, while the price of European natural gas (TTF) rose by 74%, reaching nearly €55.80 per MWh.
Freight rates for oil tankers rose (BDTI +54% and BCTI +72%), while marine fuel prices increased by up to +99% for low-sulfur fuel and +100% for high-sulfur fuel, driving up transportation costs in global supply chains.
33% of global maritime fertilizer trade (16 Mt) passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and in some countries, up to 54% of imports come from the Persian Gulf. During the last energy crisis, the natural gas index exceeded 1,000, while nitrogen fertilizers exceeded 700 (urea) and 900 (DAP).
Rising borrowing costs are increasing the potential economic burden of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Following the military escalation, sovereign bond yields rose by between 0.24 and 0.64 percentage points, reaching as high as 7.1%.
