Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
The years 2023–2025 averaged more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, with 2024 being the hottest year on record. A super El Niño on top of this baseline worsens crop yield impacts in the Caribbean, where El Niño historically generates droughts, heatwaves, and water stress that reduce production of key crops such as maize, beans, and sugarcane.
Natural gas prices, the main input for fertilizers, increased by up to 50%, driving up the cost of the sector (Agrolatam, 2026).
2.4% rise in FAO's Food Price Index in March 2026 reached its highest since September of the prior year, with crude oil near USD 120 per barrel due to the Iran conflict (Ibáñez, 2026).
5.1% rise in vegetable oil prices and 7.2% in sugar — its highest since October 2025 — were recorded in March 2026, both linked to energy cost increases from the Iran war (Ibáñez, 2026).
25% crop yield decline is projected from a 20% fertilizer cut if the conflict exceeds 40 days, affecting 50% of producer budgets (Ibáñez, 2026).
74.67% was the increase in the price of urea, rising from 415.4 to 725.6 dollars per ton between the start of 2026 and March 31.
Fertilizer prices have increased by up to 30% in some markets due to the global crisis (Mundoagro, 2026).
Fertilizer applications in some crops could decrease by up to 25% due to rising prices (Mundoagro, 2026).
Urea prices have risen by up to 50% internationally due to the conflict in the Middle East (La Nación, 2026).
The price of fertilizers increased by up to a third in one month due to the conflict (Infobae, 2026).
