Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
70% is the potential decline in northern anchovy catch during an El Niño year, according to the estimate cited by Sonapesca.
30% was the decline in global fertilizer trade by volume during the first four months of 2026 due to the war in the Middle East, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and export restrictions.
September onward is the period when Paraguay’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock expects El Niño could have a significant impact, coinciding with the start of the rainy season.
200 millimeters of rain in a single day may occur during localized extreme events associated with El Niño in Paraguay, creating problems for production.
Region 3-4 of the Pacific Ocean is where Paraguay’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock states El Niño has already settled, with direct impact expected on Paraguay.
Latin America and the Caribbean require US$33 million to take action and protect 1.1 million people from the anticipated effects of El Niño, including those related to food security. (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2026).
Latin America and the Caribbean consolidated their position as one of the world's leading net exporters of aquatic animal products, registering a trade surplus of $21 billion in 2024. (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2026).
After a sharp decline linked to the 2023 El Niño phenomenon, the anchovy (Engraulis ringens) recovered remarkably in 2024, with catches increasing by almost 65%, from 3.5 million tons to 5.7 million tons. (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2026).
In 2023, the average per capita availability of aquatic foods (blue foods) in Latin America was 10.1 kg. (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2026).
For the Niño 1+2 region, the Coastal Niño would extend until the summer of 2027. The event is expected to reach a magnitude between strong (48%) and moderate (46%). (Multisectoral Commission in Charge of the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon, 2026).
