Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
INSIVUMEH forecasts a 100% probability of El Niño conditions from September-November 2026 through February-April 2027.
October-December 2026 forecasts indicate more than a 70% probability of below-normal rainfall in Honduras, Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, eastern El Salvador and other parts of southern Central America. The outlook coincides with establishment and development of Segunda/Postrera crops and very strong El Niño conditions.
190 million gallons of water per day are produced approximately by the NWC to serve two million customers in Jamaica.
40.2% is reported for Hermitage Dam and 33.7% for Mona Dam amid drought conditions affecting water systems in Jamaica.
107 National Water Commission (NWC) systems are being affected, at varying stages, by drought conditions in Jamaica.
13% was the increase in the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index in the July-September 2026 quarter, its largest quarterly gain since March 2022; the source links the rise to Black Sea tensions and extreme weather and notes a strengthening El Nino threatening agricultural production.
49.78% of the area of the United States and Puerto Rico was in moderate drought or a more intense drought category (D1-D4), based on data valid as of September 29, 2026.
Strengthening El Niño conditions increase the risk of poor maize yields in Zimbabwe and South Africa during the 2026/27 season. During previous El Niño events, regional maize and sorghum production was around 10% to 15% below normal, and deficits exceeding 40% are considered possible.
66.42% of the area of the United States and Puerto Rico was abnormally dry or in some category of drought (D0-D4), based on data valid as of September 29, 2026.
The 2026 Primera maize and bean season ended under poor conditions in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua due to prolonged dry spells and high temperatures. GEOGLAM reports that many subsistence farmers experienced losses above 75%, while some crops died at early stages because of erratic rainfall.
