Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
4 low-intensity, short-lived tropical systems had been observed in the 2026 Atlantic season by August 28; only Tropical Storm Dolly occurred in the main development region. Météo-France links this historically low activity to the strong El Niño and high wind shear.
From August 31 to September 27, 2026, Météo-France forecasts rainfall totals clearly below normal across the Leeward Islands of the Lesser Antilles. From September 7 to 27, the rainfall deficit is expected to range from slight to moderate.
Between +0.5°C and +1.5°C above normal are the temperatures forecast from August 31 to September 27, 2026, in Guadeloupe, Saint-Martin, and Saint-Barthélemy.
September 7-13, 2026, is forecast to be the driest of the three weeks from September 7 to 27 and the warmest of the four-week outlook period, particularly in Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy.
The strengthening El Nino across Central America - on track to be one of the strongest events since 1950 in 2026 - has driven Guatemala's worst drought of the season: 52 consecutive days without rain that have already caused crop losses in 138 of the country's municipalities, according to the Executive Secretariat for Disaster Reduction (SE-CONRED), reported at CONASAN's extraordinary meeting on A...
The drought that El Nino is intensifying across Central America has left 236,447 Guatemalan families affected, according to the National Food and Nutrition Security Council (CONASAN), reported at its extraordinary meeting on August 28, 2026, which is evaluating raising the alert level to orange or red to activate the National Response Plan.
43% is the estimated probability of an extraordinary Coastal El Niño in the Niño 1+2 region during the summer from December 2026 to March 2027.
58% or higher is the probability that El Niño will reach very strong magnitude in the Niño 3.4 region between September 2026 and January 2027.
62% or higher is the probability that Coastal El Niño will reach extraordinary magnitude in the Niño 1+2 region between September 2026 and January 2027.
43 U.S. states were experiencing Moderate Drought (D1) or worse during the week of August 19-25, 2026.
