Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
415.8 mm was the average accumulated precipitation in French Guiana from June through August 2026, the lowest total for that period since 1967 and equivalent to a 36% deficit, calculated using 13 reference stations.
Between 3 and 8 named storms were forecast for the Caribbean from September to November 2026; 2 to 5 could develop into hurricanes and 1 or 2 into major hurricanes.
Unusually low rainfall totals were forecast during the peak of the Caribbean Wet Season, with the highest chances of deficits in Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, the Lesser Antilles, and the ABC Islands.
By the end of November 2026, severe long-term drought was considered imminent in Saint Lucia and evolving in the ABC Islands, Antigua, northern and northwestern Bahamas, and Tobago.
As of September 1, 2026, 49.51% of the United States and Puerto Rico was in drought (59.05% across the Lower 48 states), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Drought conditions worsened that week across the south-central United States and along the North Dakota-South Dakota-Minnesota border area.
3.75 metres was the observed level of the Paraguay River at the Bahia Negra station on 31 August 2026.
0.90 metres was the observed level of the Paraguay River at the Asuncion station on 31 August 2026.
2.65 metres was the observed level of the Paraguay River at the Pilar station on 31 August 2026.
In July 2026, the Niño3.4 index exceeded a +2°C sea-surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific, a threshold that Météo-France classifies as strong El Niño intensity.
Among the most intense episodes observed since 1950 could be the 2026 El Niño: six-month seasonal forecasts indicate that the Niño3.4 index will continue rising and peak in late 2026, potentially reaching very strong intensity.
