Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
In Central America's Dry Corridor and the northern Caribbean, El Niño is associated with rainfall deficits, agricultural drought, and heat waves, mainly affecting maize and beans in family farming systems. Latin America's agricultural sector absorbs 26% of climate disaster damages on average and up to 82% during droughts, with additional impacts on Caribbean coastal fisheries from equatorial Paci...
Some 50% of Latin America's energy comes from hydroelectric sources, making the region highly exposed to El Niño. Paraguay relies on hydropower for 99.8% of its electricity, Costa Rica for 73.1%, and Colombia for 70.8%. Droughts force reliance on costlier thermal plants, raising energy prices with direct impacts on agricultural production costs.
With a 61% probability of El Niño occurring in the May–July 2026 quarter (NOAA), Andean countries could see GDP reduced by 0.6 to 1.7 percentage points. The phenomenon would affect agriculture, hydroelectric energy, and logistics, with Latin America's agricultural sector absorbing up to 82% of damages during drought episodes.
Crude oil surpassed USD 114 per barrel in 2026 due to the Iran conflict, raising imported food, transport, and electricity prices across the Caribbean. WFP estimates 45 million additional people could fall into acute hunger if the war persists, with the Caribbean among the most exposed regions due to heavy food import dependence and the simultaneous threat of El Niño-driven droughts.
NOAA estimates a 61% probability of El Niño developing by mid-2026. WMO warns a strong event would bring severe dry spells to Belize, Guyana, Suriname, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago, threatening crops and water supplies in Caribbean nations already facing high imported food prices due to the Iran war.
The years 2023–2025 averaged more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, with 2024 being the hottest year on record. A super El Niño on top of this baseline worsens crop yield impacts in the Caribbean, where El Niño historically generates droughts, heatwaves, and water stress that reduce production of key crops such as maize, beans, and sugarcane.
NCAR climate models indicate the 2026 El Niño could be the strongest on record. NOAA estimates at least a 50% chance of a "strong" or "very strong" event during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter. Some models project global temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C above preindustrial levels — which would be the first time in recorded history.
LAC holds 34% of the planet's renewable freshwater, yet droughts and watershed degradation affect over 100 million people, especially in rural areas, indigenous territories, and arid regions. FAO warns that family farming sustains more than 80% of regional agricultural production, but without sustainable water management its viability is at risk.
ECMWF models project a super El Niño for summer–fall 2026, potentially surpassing the record December 2015 event (+5.04°F above average in the central equatorial Pacific). NOAA estimates a 61% chance of El Niño in May–July and a 33% chance it will be strong, with expected impacts including Caribbean droughts and reduced Atlantic hurricane activity.
During the 2023–24 El Niño drought, daily Panama Canal transits fell to 24 vessels (versus the usual 36), with draft restrictions set at 44 feet. NOAA warns the 2026–27 El Niño could again lower Gatún Lake levels and replicate these disruptions, directly impacting regional agrifood trade.
