Data or statistical facts on the situation and perspectives of agri-food systems and the impact of policies
There is a 61% probability that El Niño will develop between May and July 2026 (IDB, 2026).
1.5 billion lempiras were allocated by Honduras to the 2026 Agricultural, Livestock and Coffee Production Incentives Program to strengthen food security and respond to climate emergencies.
22% of global agricultural disaster losses are accounted for by the Americas, with losses estimated at USD 713 billion.
More than 100,000 people in 250 rural communities benefited from anticipatory actions implemented in nine countries during the 2023-2024 El Niño event, with increases of up to 40% in maize and bean production in some Central American countries.
130.7 points was the FAO Food Price Index in April 2026, up 1.6% from March and 2.0% from April 2025.
More than 20% is NOAA’s estimated probability of an extreme version of El Niño occurring, although experts warn that uncertainty remains.
Nearly 30% was the year-on-year increase in grain harvests during intense El Niño events, such as 1997 and 2014-2016, due to productivity gains.
1997 was the last time Argentina observed an extreme version of El Niño, associated with intense rainfall, floods, and damage in urban and agricultural areas.
60% is the approximate probability assigned by Enfen to a weak El Niño event in Peru during 2026.
The price of urea in the United States increased by 34% before the planting season (Agrolatam, 2026).
